The World coarse grains indicator price (US corn, fob Gulf) is forecast to rise by 13% in 2012-13 to US $318 a tonne and the world indicator price for barley (French Rouen feed) is forecast to rise by 8% to US$292 a tonne. These price increases are driven mainly by severe drought conditions in the United States and dry seasonal conditions in the Black Sea region, leading to a reduction in coarse grains supply in 2012-13.
World coarse grains production is forecast to fall by 3% in 2012-13 to 1-1 billion tonnes, driven mainly by a 4% fall in world corn production to 834 million tonnes, mainly as a result of an expected large decline in US corn production. World barley production is forecast to fall by 2% in 2012-13 to 132 million tonnes largely as a result of a forecast fall in production in the Black Sea region.
World consumption of coarse grains is forecast to decrease by 1% in 2012-13 to around 1.1 billion tonnes in response to high coarse grain prices. World consumption of corn is forecast to decrease by 1% to 856 million tonnes mainly as a result of forecast lower consumption in the United States. World consumption of barley is forecast to decrease by 1% to 135 million tonnes, mainly reflecting forecast lower consumption in Ukraine and the Russia Federation.
In Australia, total coarse grains production is forecast to decline by 13% in 2012-13 to 11.7 million tonnes from a recent high of 13.4 million tonnes in 2011-12. The forecast fall in coarse grains production mainly reflects the effects of a smaller planted area and a declined in the average yield as a result of varied seasonal conditions in major growing regions.
For the major winter coarse grain, barley, production is forecast to decrease by 19% in 2012-13 to 7.0 million tonnes. Queensland’s barley production is forecast to fall by 6% in 2012-13 to around 160 000 tonnes, reflecting a decrease in planted area.
The outlook for summer coarse grains is more positive than winter coarse in 2012-13. Favourable soil moisture levels in the key growing regions of southern Queensland and Northern New South Wales, together with high grain sorghum prices, are expected to lead to a 24% increase in the area planted to grain sorghum to 782 000 hectares, of which around 550 000 hectares is forecast to be planted in Queensland.
Australian grain sorghum production is forecast to increase by 10% in 2010-13 to 2.6 million tonnes. Assuming average seasonal conditions, Queensland grain sorghum production is forecast to increase by 8% to around 1.8 million tonnes.
Total Australian coarse grains exports are forecast to decrease by 21% in 2012-13 to 6.2 million tonnes, largely, as a result of a result of a 29% fall in barley exports. However, exports of grain sorghum are forecast to increase by 13% in 2012-13 to 1.3 million tonnes. The forecast increase in the volume of grain sorghum exports, combined with high export prices, is forecast to increase the value of grain sorghum exports by 19% to $356 million.